MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

    8.4.1         METHOD 1 – MARKET AHARE APPROACH
    Method 1 allocates the turnover uplift of the Noosa Civic development to retailers within the trade area at
    an aggregated postcode level. This allocation is based on the market shares currently achieved by the
    retailers in each postcode. The analysis only looks at the change in spending of trade area residents. It
    does not provide an indication of any turnover diversion as a result of change in non-resident spending
    (i.e. tourist).

    The data used in this method is outlined below.

          The combined Quantium electronic market share achieved by the shops in each postcode. This is
           provided for each trade area sector and tenant type (refer Table 8.3 and Appendix F). Postcode 4566
           does not include the market share achieved by Noosa Civic.

          Market share uplift by trade area sector and product group forecast for Noosa Civic as outlined in
           section 7 (refer Table 7.7).

          The trade area spending market for 2018 as outlined in section 5 (refer Table 5.8.)

    The methodology is as follows:

    1. Assume Quantium electronic spend is representative of all expenditure by trade area residents (i.e.
       the market share of electronic spend equals the market share of all spending, including cash).

    2. As the Quantium market shares are provided at a tenant type level (e.g. supermarkets), the Quantium
       categories have been combined to be representative of the standard Urbis product groups (see
       below).

    3. The market share uplift by Noosa Civic for each trade area sector and product group is then
       multiplied by the market share achieved in each postcode. This provides the likely decline in market
       share achieved by the retailers in each postcode as a result of the Noosa Civic expansion.

    4. The decline in market share to each postcode is then multiplied by the size of the relevant market in
       2018. This gives an indication of the turnover impact on retailers within each postcode as a result of
       the Noosa Civic expansion.

        URBIS PRODUCT GROUP                     QUANTIUM TENANT TYPE

        Food Retail                            Supermarkets (76%)
                                                Food & Liquor (24%)

       Food Catering                          Food Catering (100%)

       Leisure/General                        General Retail (72%)
                                                Leisure Retailing (28%)

       Apparel                                Apparel (67%)
                                                Discount Department Stores (27%)
                                                Department Stores (6%)

       Homewares                              Household Goods (100%)

       Bulky Goods                            Bulky Goods (100%)

       Retail Services                        Retail Services (100%)




    URBIS
    NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                    ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS   113