MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Based on the above methodology, the estimated impacts are provided in Table 8.3. The figures should
be interpreted as the upper bound of anticipated percentage impacts since two additional factors are also
important to consider:

    Firstly, as previously indicated, the trade area currently experiences a high level of escape spending
     and hence a proportion of the diversion of trade will come off external centres rather than locations in
     the postcode.

    Secondly, the centres in each of the postcodes benefit from tourist trade to varying degrees.

Key outcomes from the analysis are as follows:

    A decrease in main trade area retail spending to all other centres within the trade area of $52.3
     million in 2018 ($2014 inc GST), relative to the no development scenario.

    Due to the high market shares currently achieved by retailers in postcode 4566 (Noosaville), a decline
     in turnover of $23.4 million is estimated, a diversion of 9.7% relative to Case 1 (see Table 8.4).


Quantium Market Shares, 2014
BY POSTCODE                                                                                                         TABLE 8.3
Trade Area Sector                         4567           4566    4565    4563      4573         4568         4562        Total

Primary                                   8.5%         31.9%    10.7%    0.9%      2.0%         0.1%         0.7%       54.9%
    Secondary North East                32.0%          22.3%    1.1%    0.2%       2.2%         0.0%         0.2%       58.0%
    Secondary South East                  3.4%          6.3%    0.4%    0.1%     38.1%          0.0%         0.1%       48.4%
    Secondary South                       3.7%         15.7%    1.2%    5.2%     18.6%          0.3%         2.1%       46.7%
    Secondary North West                  4.1%         20.4%    8.2%    13.1%      0.6%         5.6%         0.9%       52.8%
Total Secondary                           9.5%         15.3%    2.9%     4.7%     16.6%         1.6%         0.7%       51.3%
Main Trade Area                           9.2%         19.9%    5.0%     3.6%     12.6%         1.2%         0.7%       52.3%
1. Insufficient data available for postcodes 4569 and 4571.
2. Postcode 4566 excludes Noosa Civic.
Source : Quantium ; Urbis




114      ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS
                                                                                                                                  URBIS
                                                                           NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL