MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Trade Area Retail Spending vs. Queensland Average, 2014
AVERAGE RETAIL SPENDING PER CAPITA VAR’N FROM QLD AVERAGE                                                                             CHART 5.4


                                                                           +9%
    Variation from Total




                                                                                                        +7%
       Queensland




                                                                                          +5%
          Average




                            +3%                                                                                                +4%
                                                              +3%                                                  +2%                     +3%


                                                  -3%
                                      -4%



                            Food      Food       Apparel   Homewares       Bulky      Leisure/      Retail        Food      Non-Food Total Retail
                            Retail   Catering                              Goods      General      Services

So urce : A B S; M arketInfo 2012; Urbis




5.4.3                      RETAIL MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS
Combining per capita retail spending with future population growth, the total volume of current and future
retail spending generated by trade area residents can be calculated. Table 5.7 below outlines the current
retail spending market by product group for the residents within the Noosa Civic trade area.

This analysis indicates that residents of the primary trade area currently spend approximately $296 million
on retail goods and services, including GST. The total size of the main trade area retail spending market
in 2014 is estimated at approximately $1.07 billion, including approximately $590 million in food spending
and $484 million in non-food spending.


Retail Expenditure, 2014
NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA ($M, $2014, INC GST)                                                                                          TABLE 5.7
                                        Food        Food                         Home-          Bulky         Leisure/     Retail       Total
                                        Retail     Catering     Apparel          wares          Goods         General     Services      Retail
Primary:
Primary                                 134.4        29.9           25.3           21.5          35.3          37.6         12.4        296.4
Secondary:
North East                               69.0        17.9           14.4           12.8          18.3          20.0          7.0        159.4
South East                              112.6        26.5           22.3           18.6          29.7          32.4         10.0        252.2
South                                    66.7        14.8           13.3           11.0          19.8          20.0          5.9        151.4
North West                               98.0        20.7           17.1           15.6          27.2          28.7          8.3        215.5
Total Secondary                         346.2         79.9          67.1           57.9           95.0         101.1        31.2        778.5
Main Trade Area                         480.6        109.8          92.4           79.5          130.3         138.7        43.6       1,074.9
Source : MDS, MarketInfo 2012, Australian Nationa Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product Accounts (5206.0) ; Urbis


In relation to future trade area expenditure levels, growth in the market is generally related to two factors:

         Population growth which is forecast to average 1.5% per annum between 2014-21 and 0.6% per
          annum from 2021 to 2031.

         Real per capita spending growth, which is forecast to average around 1.8 % per annum to 2031. The
          average rate of ‘real’ growth over the past 20 years in Australia has been 2.6% per annum but we
          expect more subdued growth going forward. Given this relatively conservative forecast by historic
          standards the probability of a higher real growth rate is arguably greater than the downside. If a
          higher growth rate eventuates this would have the effect of lowering the impacts discussed later in
          this report.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                                            NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS   81