MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Given the assumptions outlined above, population and spending growth in the trade area would result in
the retail spending market reaching approximately $1.35 billion in 2021 and $1.72 billion in 2031 (refer
Table 5.8). By 2021, therefore, retail spending is expected to be $271 million greater than in 2014 and,
under normal circumstances, this would be shared by all retail facilities serving the Noosa market.

Main trade area retail expenditure growth is therefore expected to be moderate at approximately 3.3% per
annum to 2021, with approximately one quarter generated by primary trade area residents. Continued
growth in retail spending is expected and by 2031 the main trade area is estimated to reach $1.70 billion.
Again, around one quarter of this spending is derived from primary trade area residents.

Strong population growth in the secondary south sector is expected to contribute to a solid increase in
retail spending from this sector, increasing from $151 million in 2014 to $314 million in 2031. This
represents an increase of $163 million over the 17 year period, or an average annual growth rate of 4.3%.
The additional retail spending generated will be directed towards all existing and future retail facilities in
the region depending upon individual needs and the offer/experience provided in various centres. The
share of this growth attracted to the subject development proposal will therefore depend on how well the
development responds to consumer needs, and changing consumer preferences.


Retail Spending Growth, 2014 – 2031
NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA ($M, $2014, INC GST)                                                                                        TABLE 5.8
                                                                     Secondary TA
                    Primary             North            South                               North
                                                                           South                                Total             Main TA
                      TA                East             East                                West

 2014                  296               159               252               151              216                778               1,075
 2018                  329               174               291               189              241                894               1,224
 2021                  354               186               321               223              262                992               1,346
 2031                  432               224               397               314              332              1,267               1,698
 Average Annual Growth
 2014-18              2.7%              2.2%              3.6%              5.7%              2.8%              3.5%               3.3%
 2018-21              2.5%              2.2%              3.4%              5.6%              2.9%              3.5%               3.2%
 2021-31              2.0%              1.9%              2.1%              3.5%              2.4%              2.5%               2.4%
 2014-31              2.2%              2.0%              2.7%              4.4%              2.6%              2.9%               2.7%
 Share of Main Trade Area
 2014                  28%              15%               23%               14%               20%               72%                100%
 2018                  27%              14%               24%               15%               20%               73%                100%
 2021                  26%              14%               24%               17%               19%               74%                100%
 2031                  25%              13%               23%               18%               20%               75%                100%
 Source : MDS, MarketInfo 2012, Australian Nationa Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product Accounts (5206.0) ; Urbis




5.5         TOURISM
This sub-section provides an overview of the Sunshine Coast and trade area tourist market, which
includes day trips as well as domestic and international overnight visitors.

The subject development proposal will predominantly serve the local resident market in the future,
although given the contribution of tourism to the region in general it is worth identifying the potential
tourist expenditure market that all centres in the relevant area could draw on.

The data in this sub-section has been sourced from the Tourism Research Australia and ABS Tourist
Accommodation data.




82    NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                             URBIS
                                                                                      NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL